FORT ST. JOHN, B.C. - Communities across Northeast British Columbia could face hotter summers, increased wildfire danger, heavier downpours and changing water conditions in the decades ahead, according to newly released climate projections for the region.
The Fraser Basin Council has released its Updated Climate Projections for the B.C. Northeast Region, a report intended to help local governments, First Nations and community organizations better understand and prepare for future climate-related risks.
The updated report builds on projections first released in 2019 and incorporates the latest climate data and scientific research.
According to the report, Northeast B.C. is expected to continue warming in all seasons as global temperatures rise.
Researchers project longer and hotter summers, with many more days reaching temperatures above 25 C and 30 C.
The report warns those warmer conditions could increase heat stress for people, livestock and ecosystems while contributing to a higher risk of wildfires across the region.
CHANGES TO WATER, SNOWPACK AND STREAMFLOW
Researchers say climate change is expected to alter the amount, timing and intensity of precipitation across Northeast B.C., with potential impacts on water availability, snowpack, runoff and streamflow.
Those findings could have implications for communities which rely on stable water supplies and long-term watershed planning.
The city of Dawson Creek is currently being forced to find a new water supply due to ongoing drought and climate challenges affecting its primary source, the Kiskatinaw River.
Changes in snowpack and streamflow patterns could affect how water moves through regional watersheds and when it is available throughout the year.
The report notes that warmer temperatures combined with shifts in snowpack and summer precipitation may also contribute to increasing wildfire risk.
The projections indicate heavy rainfall events are expected to become both more frequent and more intense.
Researchers say those changes could increase the risk of flooding, erosion and damage to infrastructure, adding pressure on communities already managing extreme weather events.
PRESSURE ON ROADS, BRIDGES AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
The report says changing temperature and precipitation patterns could affect roads, bridges, buildings, water and wastewater systems, energy infrastructure and other public assets.
Climate-related impacts could also be felt across sectors including agriculture, forestry, energy, tourism, local businesses and employment.
For Peace Region ranchers and producers, hotter conditions could create additional heat stress for livestock, potentially affecting animal health and agricultural operations.
HEALTH AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONCERNS
The report highlights growing concerns around public health, noting that more extreme heat and wildfire smoke could affect the well-being of residents.
Climate-related disruptions, including evacuations and damage to homes and services, may also create broader social and mental health impacts.
Emergency management agencies may face increasingly complex challenges as climate hazards evolve, including the possibility of more frequent or repeated emergencies and evacuations.
IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS AND FIRST NATIONS COMMUNITIES
Researchers also project impacts on ecosystems, wildlife, fish populations and natural resources.
The report notes that changing environmental conditions may affect access to recreation, cultural practices and traditional foods that are important to many Indigenous communities in the region.
Several First Nations were directly involved in developing the report, including the Doig River First Nation, Fort Nelson First Nations, Saulteau First Nations and West Moberly First Nation.
Project organizers say the process helped incorporate First Nations perspectives and knowledge into regional climate adaptation work.
REGIONAL COLLABORATION
Regional governments involved in the project include the City of Fort St. John, City of Dawson Creek, District of Tumbler Ridge, District of Chetwynd, Northern Rockies Regional Municipality, Peace River Regional District and Northern Health.
Hilary Sheppard, Regional Development Officer with the Northern Rockies Regional Municipality, said the updated projections will help communities better understand and prepare for climate-related impacts, while supporting future infrastructure planning and funding opportunities.
The Fraser Basin Council says the climate projections are intended to support long-term planning and decision-making, and a free training series for local governments and First Nations in Northern B.C. is scheduled to launch later this fall.