DAWSON CREEK, B.C. - The B.C. Conservatives are raising concerns about the NDP government’s fiscal projections, alleging that natural gas royalty revenues in the provincial budget have been overstated by roughly $500 million per year.
According to the Conservatives, economists have identified what they describe as flaws in the government’s natural gas royalty forecasts, arguing that major costs were overlooked when revenue projections were calculated.
The Conservatives say the discrepancy could leave a significant gap in the province’s financial outlook.
“This isn’t just an accounting error. It’s a credibility problem,” said Gavin Dew, the Conservative Shadow Minister for Finance.
Dew argued that British Columbia is already facing record debt and deficits and said questions remain about whether government revenue forecasts were inaccurate and when officials became aware of any problems.
The Conservatives also questioned when senior government officials first learned of the alleged forecasting issue.
The Conservative say that Energy Minister Adrian Dix reportedly warned about concerns with the calculations in June.
Treaty 8 First Nations are also said to have later raised the matter directly with Premier David Eby.
The opposition says Eby recently told reporters he was not aware of any errors in the province’s oil and gas revenue projections.
Need for Transparancy
“This time, British Columbians deserve to know exactly when he learned the government’s numbers were wrong, who he told, and why the public wasn’t told,” Dew said.
John Rustad, the Conservative Shadow Minister for Treasury Board, said the province should provide greater transparency regarding the forecasts and any revisions that may have been made.
Rustad argued that inaccuracies in revenue estimates could have implications for government spending plans as well as investor confidence.
The opposition is calling on the Office of the Auditor General to conduct an independent review of the revenue forecasts, the government’s internal processes and communications, and any impact the alleged error may have had on B.C.’s fiscal plan.
Meanwhile, the MLA for Peace River South said the province should focus on attracting investment and supporting natural gas development.
You can’t budget your way to prosperity with forecasts based on faulty projections,” said Larry Neufeld, Shadow Minister for Energy.
“If Premier David Eby wants higher natural gas revenues, it has to earn them by attracting investment and not with misleading projections. The government needs to stop making it harder to do business in B.C. and start getting out of the way. That means less red tape, more certainty, and lower taxes,” said Neufeld.
Province Confirms Error
The British Columbia government has confirmed several errors overstating its forecasts of natural gas revenues by about $1.46 billion over five fiscal years, starting with the current one.
Officials have told a technical briefing the administrative errors will be corrected in the province’s quarterly fiscal report expected later this month.
The briefing heard the impact on B.C.’s deficit — last pegged at $7.7 billion for fiscal year 2025-2026 — would be made clear with the release of that report.
The most substantial of the errors made by staff in the Energy Ministry relate to currency conversion, when a formula was incorrectly applied across a spreadsheet.
Correcting that error results in a price decrease of 44 cents per gigajoule in the province’s forecasting for 2026-2027.
The errors amount to an average annual decrease in expected revenues of $292 million from this fiscal year to the one starting in 2030.